2013 brings nearby comet, and most active time for Sun

During 2013, as the Sun approaches its maximum energy output, Earth will frequently be bathed in destructive radioactive particles released when the Sun belches out solar flares and coronal mass ejections.

(January 3, 2013) Welcome to 2013! This year promises to serve up at least a couple of remarkable events in our Solar System.

These two events are the arrival of a comet that may be visible in the daylight hours, beaming as brightly as the full Moon; the other event is a normal part of our life-giving parent star, The Sun, and the long burn known as Solar Cycle which is about reach its maximum point of activity, or Max. This period represents the most active time for the Sun during its 11-year cycle.

The comet, although possibly quite spectacular to observers, presents almost no danger to Earth. However the Sun’s maximum activity period will probably unleash multiple Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) that eject trillions of tons of radioactive material at millions of miles per hour with enough energy to destroy the critically important satellites that orbit the Earth.

figure1cropped — Comet 2012 ISON Observing Chart

The comet was discovered on September 21, 2012 by two Russion amateur astronomers, Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok using a 16-inch telescope in Vitebsk, Belarus. We know conclusively that the comet will not impact Earth. However, at its closest, the Comet will be less than 800,000 miles away. Ironically, the telescope used to discover this comet is the same size as the largest one in my own collection of telescopes.

There is so much to discuss about comets, including their composition, appearance as they journey around the Sun, and their behavior. In the not-so-distant past, a largely illiterate public saw comets as foreshadowing doom, pestilence and death. In the 21^st century, our technology identifies the orbital mechanics of these harbingers of doom soon after discovery. In this case, we know conclusively that the comet is a Sun-Grazing comet. When it is as bright as a full Moon and visible during daylight hours, we will witness Comet 2012 ISON execute a hairpin turn around the Sun as it remains true to its classification as a Sun Diving Comet.

During 2013, as the Sun approaches its maximum energy output, Earth will frequently be bathed in destructive radioactive particles released from the Sun whenever it belches out solar flares and coronal mass ejections. Hundreds of years ago, scientists were no more aware of the Sun’s mysterious Sunspot behavior than they were of electromagnetism.

The Nearest Star to Earth: Sol! our Sun imaged by the SOHO telescope on Nov. 16, 2012

Electromagnetism is responsible for the strange sunspots. If a major CME happens when it is facing directly toward Earth, our satellites risk severe damage and in some cases, destruction. In the extreme, a massive solar blast could cause a cascading set of collisions between the satellites in orbit that make our daily information-age lives possible. This condition is nothing to joke about as NOAA scientists are on high alert as the Sun enters a period of solar maximum over the next 14 months, during which time we will see a burst of activity that could have catastrophic effects on global power grids and communications systems.

According to The Blaze, a 2008 study published by the National Academies Press, the estimated cost of damage due to a direct hit by a solar flare is $1-2 trillion, compared to Hurricane Katrina that cost $125 billion. The massive expense arises from the fact that in the early 21st century, our daily lives are closely tied to the continued function of power and satellite systems. On this topic, one of my favorite scientists, Dr Michio Kaku, a member of the American Physical Society (APS) said, “Solar flares are like bullets fired into space; so far we’ve dodged the bullets.”

A solar maximum is a normal period of intense or heightened solar activity in the 11 year solar cycle of the Sun. During a solar maximum, large numbers of sunspots appear and the Sun’s power output increases with a significant upsurge in the incidence and power of solar flares. One of the best known examples of a major solar flare that affected communications system was the solar storm of 1859, known as the Carrington Event, a major solar eruption that struck the Earth with such intensity that the northern lights could be seen as far south as Rome, approximately 42° north of the equator.

Should Earth receive a head-on solar blast that upsets just 30% of the satellites in geostationary, polar and low-earth orbit, life as we know it will return to a pre-1950s state without cellular phones, GPS, and computer networks. Even card-swipe gas pumps will be no more. We won’t have easy access to our money as ATM machines won’t function on the network (the networks are “down” without GPS time). Businesses will be forced to return to using cash registers as any magnetic strip device will be ineffective.

Space Discussion Seminars coming to Rockwall County Library

Thankfully, Rockwall has an excellent county library, a large and powerful house of literacy in our community. After providing a brief program synopsis, Rockwall library leadership has approved a series of adult space discussion seminars that will address the likes of Comet ISON, as well as the possibility of an all-too real Solar eruption. Of course I’ll bring some telescopes and we may even be able to convince some of my noteworthy space pals to join in our reindeer games.

To learn more about these free events, stay tuned to Blue Ribbon News and keep an eye out at the Rockwall County Library for specific dates and times of our discussion group.

Our Universe Today is a column written by Blue Ribbon News special contributor, Max Corneau, aka AstroDad, of Rockwall.

Max retired from the U.S. Army in 2009 as a Lieutenant Colonel, Senior Space Operations Officer and Master Aviator. He amassed over 3,200 hours as a pilot of Special Electronic Mission Airplanes. Since 2004 he has been a NASA/JPL Solar System Ambassador, is a Master of Astronomical Outreach through the Astronomcial League and built his own astronomical observatory. His amazing images can be seen at AstroDad.com.